Card Loss Forecasting - Vice President

Location: OH, United States

Job Family: Risk Analytics/Modeling

About the Role

At JP Morgan Chase, we are a leading global financial services firm with a proud history of innovation and client service, powering economies and communities worldwide. The Card Loss Forecasting - Vice President role within our Risk Analytics and Modeling team is pivotal in supporting the Consumer Banking division's credit card portfolio. Reporting to the Head of Credit Risk Modeling, you will lead the development of sophisticated delinquency and loss forecasting models that underpin the firm's budget planning, capital allocation, and risk management strategies. This position, based in Ohio, offers the opportunity to leverage cutting-edge analytics in a dynamic environment where your insights directly influence multi-billion-dollar decisions in one of the world's largest credit card issuers. Your primary focus will be on building and enhancing predictive models using historical data, economic variables, and behavioral analytics to forecast key metrics such as delinquency transitions, net charge-offs, and recoveries. You will collaborate closely with finance, treasury, and business leaders to ensure forecasts align with strategic objectives and regulatory expectations, including those from the Federal Reserve and OCC. In addition to model development, you will conduct sensitivity analyses, validate model performance, and provide actionable recommendations to mitigate emerging risks in the consumer lending space. This role demands a blend of technical expertise and business acumen to navigate the complexities of the financial services industry. JP Morgan Chase values diversity, innovation, and professional growth, offering a supportive culture where Vice Presidents like you can thrive. Join us to contribute to our mission of enabling economic opportunity while advancing your career in a firm renowned for its analytical rigor and global impact. This position is ideal for a seasoned risk professional passionate about driving data-informed strategies in credit card loss forecasting.

Key Responsibilities

• Develop and maintain advanced statistical models for forecasting credit card delinquency rates, charge-off losses, and recovery rates to support JP Morgan Chase's annual budget planning and strategic decision-making
• Collaborate with cross-functional teams, including Finance, Risk Management, and Business Units, to integrate forecasting outputs into enterprise-wide planning processes
• Perform scenario analysis and stress testing on credit portfolios to assess potential impacts under various economic conditions, aligning with regulatory stress testing requirements
• Validate and back-test forecasting models to ensure accuracy, robustness, and compliance with internal policies and external regulations such as CCAR and DFAST
• Analyze macroeconomic indicators, consumer behavior trends, and portfolio performance data to refine loss forecasting methodologies
• Prepare detailed reports and presentations on forecasting results for senior leadership, highlighting key risks and opportunities for the credit card business
• Monitor and update models in response to changes in market conditions, regulatory landscapes, or portfolio composition
• Mentor junior analysts and contribute to the development of best practices in risk analytics within JP Morgan Chase's Risk Analytics and Modeling team
• Support ad-hoc forecasting requests for business initiatives, mergers, or product launches in the consumer banking division

Required Qualifications

• Bachelor's degree in Finance, Economics, Statistics, Mathematics, or a related quantitative field; Master's degree or higher preferred
• Minimum of 7-10 years of experience in credit risk modeling, forecasting, or analytics within the financial services industry
• Proven expertise in developing and validating statistical models for delinquency and loss forecasting in consumer credit portfolios
• Strong proficiency in programming languages such as SAS, Python, R, or SQL for data manipulation and model implementation
• Experience with regulatory requirements for credit risk models, including Basel III, CCAR, and IFRS 9
• Demonstrated ability to communicate complex analytical findings to senior stakeholders and cross-functional teams

Preferred Qualifications

• Advanced degree (MBA, MS in Finance, or PhD in a quantitative discipline) with a focus on financial modeling
• Prior experience at a major financial institution, such as JP Morgan Chase, in credit card risk management or budgeting
• Certification in financial risk management (e.g., FRM) or data science (e.g., from CFA Institute or similar)
• Hands-on experience with machine learning techniques applied to credit forecasting in a banking environment

Required Skills

• Advanced statistical modeling and econometrics
• Proficiency in SAS, Python, R, and SQL
• Data visualization tools like Tableau or Power BI
• Credit risk assessment and portfolio analysis
• Forecasting techniques including time-series analysis and ARIMA models
• Machine learning algorithms for predictive analytics
• Regulatory knowledge of credit risk frameworks (Basel, CCAR)
• Excel and financial modeling expertise
• Strong analytical and problem-solving abilities
• Excellent communication and presentation skills
• Project management and stakeholder collaboration
• Attention to detail and accuracy in data handling
• Adaptability to dynamic financial market conditions
• Team leadership and mentoring capabilities

Benefits

• Competitive base salary and performance-based annual bonus, with total compensation reflecting JP Morgan Chase's commitment to rewarding excellence
• Comprehensive health, dental, and vision insurance plans, including options for family coverage and wellness programs
• 401(k) retirement savings plan with generous company matching contributions and immediate vesting
• Paid time off including vacation, sick leave, and parental leave, plus company holidays and flexible work arrangements
• Professional development opportunities through JP Morgan Chase's internal training programs, tuition reimbursement, and leadership development initiatives
• Employee stock purchase plan and access to financial wellness resources tailored to financial services professionals
• On-site fitness centers, childcare services, and commuter benefits at select JP Morgan Chase locations in Ohio
• Global mobility programs and networking events to support career growth within the firm's international operations

JP Morgan Chase is an equal opportunity employer.